Scenario Analysis
Scenario Builder
Apply a preset or set the adjusters directly. Every page updates instantly; save the state as a named scenario to compare it below.
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Scenario Comparison
Loading shared scenarios…| Scenario | GDV | TDC | NDP | Peak Gap | RoC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Working Model Price 0.0% / Cost 0.0% | 8,333,850 | 11,284,413 | -3,198,910 | -4,645,265 | -28.3% | |
1. Base Case Approved V1 provisional inputs | 8,333,850 | 11,284,413 | -3,198,910 | -4,645,265 | -28.3% | |
2. Price Downside 10% reduction across all unit pricing | 7,500,465 | 11,261,599 | -3,988,646 | -5,050,286 | -35.4% | |
3. Price Severe 15% reduction, slow absorption | 7,083,773 | 11,250,192 | -4,383,514 | -5,297,522 | -39.0% | |
4. Cost Overrun 15% construction cost overrun | 8,333,850 | 12,557,039 | -4,471,536 | -5,615,865 | -35.6% | |
5. Cost Severe 20% overrun with 6-month delay | 8,333,850 | 12,981,248 | -4,895,744 | -5,969,216 | -37.7% | |
6. Slow Absorption 30% absorption by month 18 | 8,333,850 | 11,284,413 | -3,198,910 | -4,645,265 | -28.3% | |
7. Combined Downside Price down 10%, cost up 15% | 7,500,465 | 12,534,225 | -5,261,272 | -6,110,338 | -42.0% | |
8. Price Upside 10% uplift if market evidence supports | 9,167,235 | 11,307,227 | -2,409,173 | -4,250,040 | -21.3% |
Preset rows apply the price and cost adjusters on top of your current working inputs, so they move with any edits you make elsewhere. Published scenarios capture a complete snapshot of every input and are shared with everyone who has the link — the list refreshes automatically so you see each other's scenarios. Your own working inputs stay private to your browser until you publish them.
Net Development Profit by Scenario
Viability Gap Analysis — computed live
To reach the 15.0% RoC target from the current working model, one of the following is required:
- Price increase: 62.2% on all unit pricing (average moves from JOD 1,710 to JOD 2,773/sqm NIA)
- Cost reduction: -50.1% on construction cost (TDC moves from JOD 11,284,413 to JOD 7,030,873)
- Or a combination — use the sliders above to test blended positions.
Key Caveats for Scenarios
- All scenarios run off the same provisional (P) input base until DGJ figures land
- Finance cost is derived from total cost and utilisation, not from the quarterly cash profile
- Upside cases assume market evidence supports the uplift — not yet validated
- DGJ cost opinion (16 Oct) may materially change TDC in either direction
GDV
JOD 8.33M
— at baseTDC
JOD 11.28M
— at baseNet Dev Profit
(JOD 3.20M)
— at basePeak Funding Gap
(JOD 4.65M)
— at baseReturn on Cost
-28.3%
Target ≥ 15%Verdict
NOT VIABLE