Model Quality Control
Two gates run live against the current inputs. Section A tests whether the model is internally consistent. Sections B and C test whether the evidence behind it is strong enough for the figures to be relied on at the gate review.
A · Structural integrity
7 of 15 checks passing
Model is not clear for issue. Resolve the failing checks below before circulating figures.
| # | Check | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Total units reconcile to unit schedule | 40 units | PASS |
| 2 | Absorption schedule sums to total units | 40 / 40 | PASS |
| 3 | NIA efficiency within 72–82% | 67.0% | FAIL |
| 4 | GDV greater than zero | JOD 8,333,850 | PASS |
| 5 | TDC greater than zero | JOD 11,284,413 | PASS |
| 6 | Hard cost / sqm GFA within JOD 750–1,200 | JOD 917 | PASS |
| 7 | TDC / sqm GFA within JOD 1,000–1,600 | JOD 1,736 | FAIL |
| 8 | GDV / sqm NIA within JOD 1,800–3,000 | JOD 1,710 | FAIL |
| 9 | Return on Cost meets 15% target | -28.3% | FAIL |
| 10 | Net Development Profit positive | JOD -3,198,910 | FAIL |
| 11 | Substructure contingency ≥ 15% | 20.0% | PASS |
| 12 | Funding coverage ratio ≥ 1.10x | 0.27x | FAIL |
| 13 | Ops Year 1 cost / sqm NIA within JOD 15–25 | JOD 46 | FAIL |
| 14 | Cash flow closes to zero balance | JOD -3,146,511 | FAIL |
| 15 | S&M budget exceeds commission floor | JOD 546,046 | PASS |
B · Evidence confidence gate
Applies decision register item 5 — Medium confidence may sit in the base case with disclosure; Low confidence sits in sensitivity only — together with the P→M threshold for material revenue inputs (item 3).
1 of 6 evidence gates passing
11 inputs breach the evidence standard and 0 require disclosure. The base case is indicative only until these are cleared.
| # | Gate | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | No Low-confidence input relied on in the base case Register item 5 breached by: Superstructure and façade rates; Office sale price JOD/sqm; Floor-to-floor price premiums; Selling and marketing cost; Substructure cost (14 m level differential); Showroom / lower-floor price; Service charge and Year 1 operations; Parking price per space; Absorption curve. | 9 in base case | FAIL |
| E2 | Material revenue inputs have qualified P→M Still provisional or client-stated: Office sale price JOD/sqm; Floor-to-floor price premiums; Saleable area basis; Showroom / lower-floor price; Parking price per space; Absorption curve. | 6 still P/C | FAIL |
| E3 | Medium-confidence base-case inputs carry a disclosure Disclosure missing for: Bank facility terms; Saleable area basis. | 2 undisclosed | FAIL |
| E4 | Every M-tagged input links to an evidence ID All market-evidenced inputs trace to the comparable register. | 0 unlinked | PASS |
| E5 | Three most material assumptions are evidenced Ranked by effect on Net Development Profit: Superstructure and façade rates (Low); Office sale price JOD/sqm (Low); Floor-to-floor price premiums (Low). | 0 of 3 High | FAIL |
| E6 | Combined downside remains inside available funding All downside swings applied simultaneously. Coverage below 1.00x means the combined downside cannot be funded. | 0.16x coverage | FAIL |
C · Materiality ranking and evidence register
Every assumption is re-run through the model with its downside swing applied, and ranked by the effect on Net Development Profit. Set the source, confidence and treatment of each input; the gates above update immediately. Amber cells are editable.
| # | Input | Source | Confidence | Treatment | Evidence ID | Swing tested | Δ NDP | Δ RoC | Δ Peak gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Superstructure and façade rates Cost | Rates +15% DG Jones cost opinion (±25–30%) and contractor rate sanity calls. | (JOD 663,672) | -4.0% | (JOD 510,950) | BREACH Low confidence cannot sit in the base case. Move to sensitivity or raise the evidence. | ||||
| 2 | Office sale price JOD/sqm Revenue Material revenue | Price −10% Four qualified direct/near-direct Abdoun comparables, adjusted for floor, size and specification. | (JOD 634,326) | -5.7% | (JOD 317,449) | BREACH Low confidence cannot sit in the base case. Move to sensitivity or raise the evidence. | ||||
| 3 | Floor-to-floor price premiums Revenue Material revenue | All premiums removed Paired comparable evidence or repeated broker/valuer confirmation that premiums are achieved. | (JOD 489,022) | -4.4% | (JOD 244,732) | BREACH Low confidence cannot sit in the base case. Move to sensitivity or raise the evidence. | ||||
| 4 | Selling and marketing cost Revenue | Commission +2pp Agreed agency terms plus a costed launch and sales-team budget. | (JOD 349,188) | -2.6% | (JOD 171,744) | BREACH Low confidence cannot sit in the base case. Move to sensitivity or raise the evidence. | ||||
| 5 | Substructure cost (14 m level differential) Cost | Substructure +25% Completed geotechnical investigation and the DG Jones cost opinion due 16 Oct 2026. | (JOD 249,706) | -1.6% | (JOD 221,245) | BREACH Low confidence cannot sit in the base case. Move to sensitivity or raise the evidence. | ||||
| 6 | Land value Cost | Land +10% Owner title and acquisition records. | (JOD 218,452) | -1.4% | (JOD 205,565) | OK Evidenced input — may support the base case. | ||||
| 7 | Bank facility terms Finance | Rate +2pp Indicative term sheet from the lending bank. | (JOD 182,729) | -1.1% | (JOD 58,473) | BREACH Medium confidence requires a written disclosure before it may sit in the base case. | ||||
| 8 | Saleable area basis Revenue Material revenue | GFA −5% Controlled architect area schedule reconciled to the legal saleable basis. | +JOD 165,282 | +1.1% | +JOD 124,299 | BREACH Material revenue input still tagged C. Must qualify to M before supporting the base case. | ||||
| 9 | Showroom / lower-floor price Revenue Material revenue | Price −10% Technically comparable showroom transactions plus operator or specialist broker evidence. | (JOD 136,458) | -1.2% | (JOD 68,291) | BREACH Low confidence cannot sit in the base case. Move to sensitivity or raise the evidence. | ||||
| 10 | Service charge and Year 1 operations Operations | Operating cost +25% Benchmarks from managed commercial buildings plus an FM estimate. | (JOD 53,518) | -0.3% | (JOD 1,486) | BREACH Low confidence cannot sit in the base case. Move to sensitivity or raise the evidence. | ||||
| 11 | Parking price per space Revenue Material revenue | Price −20% Comparable evidence on separately sold spaces and buyer willingness to pay. | (JOD 37,905) | -0.3% | (JOD 18,970) | BREACH Low confidence cannot sit in the base case. Move to sensitivity or raise the evidence. | ||||
| 12 | Absorption curve Programme Material revenue | Sales delayed two quarters Project-level sell-through from comparable launches; broker pipeline and time-on-market data. | JOD 0 | 0.0% | (JOD 2,021,376) | BREACH Low confidence cannot sit in the base case. Move to sensitivity or raise the evidence. |
Combined downside — every swing applied together
Net development profit
(JOD 5,940,019)
Return on cost
-47.1%
Peak funding gap
(JOD 7,967,927)
This is not a forecast. It is the arithmetic consequence of every assumption landing at the unfavourable end of its tested range at once, and is shown to size the exposure carried by the evidence still outstanding.